Swiss Re, a reinsurance company based in Zurich, has released new research suggesting that GLP-1 weight-loss medications could substantially reduce mortality rates in the United States and the United Kingdom over the next two decades.
According to the company’s projections, if these drugs are widely adopted and combined with healthy lifestyle changes, they could lower all-cause mortality in the US by as much as 6.4% by 2045, while the UK could see a reduction of just over 5%.
Paul Murray, CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, said the findings highlight the broader potential of these medications in addressing the obesity crisis.
He noted: “GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication.
“As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives.”
The study focuses on the US and UK because of their high obesity rates and the rapid uptake of GLP-1 drugs. Swiss Re notes that more than 40% of US adults and roughly 30% of adults in the UK are considered obese.
Rising obesity has been a major factor behind stagnating life expectancy in many developed nations, and it is linked to seven of the ten leading causes of death, including heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, and several cancers. Swiss Re’s research indicates that by improving key risk factors, GLP-1 medications could help prevent millions of premature deaths.
The company emphasises that the potential benefits of GLP-1 drugs rely on widespread use, adherence to treatment, and the adoption of healthier habits. Without sustained lifestyle changes, weight regain is common, with full rebound possible within a year after stopping medication.
Swiss Re models different outcomes, ranging from optimistic scenarios with broad engagement and long-term weight maintenance, to more cautious projections where uptake is limited, discontinuation is frequent due to side effects, and weight is regained after treatment.
In the most conservative scenario, cumulative mortality reductions would be far smaller, around 2.3% in the US and 1.8% in the UK by 2045.
Natalie Kelly, Head of Global Underwriting, Claims, and R&D for Life & Health at Swiss Re, stressed the implications for the insurance industry. “GLP-1drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends.
“The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant. It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks.”
Swiss Re concluded that while GLP-1 drugs show strong promise, their impact will ultimately depend on accessibility, adoption rates, and whether patients make long-term lifestyle changes to sustain the health improvements.
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