Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance broking arm of Marsh, reports that both Asia and India witnessed continued softening at the April 1, 2026, reinsurance renewals, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to drive significant losses for various specialty lines of business.
The reinsurance broker highlights significant price reductions in key 1.4 renewal territories across Asia and India, much of which has been driven by macro trends with a rise in capital leading to excess capacity available in the market.
In Japan, the largest Asia territory which renews on April 1, Guy Carpenter reports double-digit rate decreases in property catastrophe and property per risk lines of business, while softening trends also persisted in both casualty and specialty lines. Importantly, terms and conditions and structures were stable, with many renewals finalised a week ahead of plan.
Elsewhere in Asia, so for territories such as Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, Guy Carpenter also observed further market softening with double-digit rate reductions on loss-free cat business, while terms and conditions also remained largely stable in these countries.
“The Asia reinsurance market is demonstrating robust capacity and competitive pricing, particularly in Japan and surrounding territories. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, reinsurers are keen to support clients with innovative solutions, ensuring stability and continuity in a rapidly evolving environment,” said Tony Gallagher, CEO Asia Pacific.
Alongside the roughly $1 billion of Asia reinsurance premium which renews on April 1, 100% of Indian treaties are up for renewal in April. Here, Guy Carpenter witnessed a buyer-friendly and significantly competitive renewal season, supported by benign loss experience and strong local capacity. Highlighting how strong competition was in the Indian market, Guy Carpenter states that loss-free excess of loss business saw price reductions of more than 20%, while pricing remained competitive across liability and specialty lines, including cyber.
“Reinsurers in India and the Middle East are demonstrating a strong commitment to maintain coverage despite the complexities posed by ongoing conflicts. Our focus remains on protecting clients’ interests and ensuring that no significant commercial limitations are placed on renewals, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of the market,” said Atish Suri, CEO India, Middle East & Africa.
April 1 was the first renewal season of the year since the onset of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran, and according to Guy Carpenter, specialty lines renewals in March and April were shaped by the war, with a notably strong emphasis on maintaining coverage for cedents exposed or at risk.
“As the conflict in the Middle East continues, treaty reinsurers have acted swiftly to assess potential exposures. Given the scale of the conflict, potential losses across political violence, marine, and aviation lines could be significant. Continuity of cover remains paramount, with no prejudice against clients renewing, and no acceptance of conflict exclusionary language in contractual terms,” said Guy Carpenter.
As well as an overview of the April 1 renewal season, Guy Carpenter has today reported that insured catastrophe losses for the first quarter of 2026 are estimated at $13 billion, which is more than 50% below the five-year inflation-adjusted average. As per the broker, reinsurers continue to assume a lesser share of global catastrophe losses, which are increasingly driven by so-called secondary perils such as severe convective storms, floods, and wildfires, owing to higher attachment points on programmes and fewer catastrophe events.
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